MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4755c8e9b3a5a9f0ef56cfaac02f0965565bda3e7d23472e8edbb2275dcafed9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 56,727$24,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,766.87 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 33,437$18,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,724.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 5,670$3,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,175 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 4,373$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 3,000$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.99 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 2,762$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.6 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 2,762$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.6 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 48c | 1,795$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.54 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 1,745$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.6 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 1,604$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.39 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 1,173$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.88 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…a2dcbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 1,071$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 1,024$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.81 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 900$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 870.55$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.51 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 869.86$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.12 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 800$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 521.91$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.27 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 436$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.16 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 431$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 351.7$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.95 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 305.77$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.68 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 283.77$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 283.48$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.75 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 281.64$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 236$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 198.22$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 196.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 195$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 27c | 178.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 167.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 159.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 154.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 146.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 143.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 135$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 134.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 115$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 108.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 83.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 71.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…79ddbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 62.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 53.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 46.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 37.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 36.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…317bbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 35.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 33.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 19.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 18.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…4efebacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.