Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69751bd00b6af422c7db9337e9e4e7d95627c4d11737b29383b1d178ff501cdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,743$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,643$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 280.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 210.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…2920backed Yes | 18c | 160.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 79c | 127.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 104.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 99.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 56c | 88.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 83.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 83.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5c…fd72backed Yes | 37c | 80.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 23c | 77.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da2…eef1backed No | 77c | 73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 27c | 72.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…4efbbacked No | 77c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 22c | 62.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 60.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 60.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 19c | 58.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 57.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…a61cbacked Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 48.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 35c | 47.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7153…3b55backed Yes | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 45.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 69c | 41.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 41c | 39.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 52c | 37.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 37.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 35.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 68c | 32.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 27.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 75c | 25.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 24.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 78c | 24.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 72c | 21.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…5fe1backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.