Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6979b15ab68bee2c246550937af46729998fa021db0bd43123b357c66d52e790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 12c | 5,050$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 9c | 4,301$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.61 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…6657backed Yes | 12c | 2,133$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,480$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.1 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,150$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…95a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,129$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Yes | 11c | 900.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…96f7backed Yes | 11c | 756.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 6c | 667.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 12c | 587.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…7b6fbacked Yes | 12c | 550.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…a3f3backed Yes | 12c | 519.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -42%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…6ea1backed Yes | 12c | 405.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 11c | 368.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…13c0backed Yes | 12c | 333.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 12c | 290$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 4c | 257.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 175 | 29.1%51 W · 124 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…1b25backed Yes | 12c | 165.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…430fbacked Yes | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…f7bdbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 12c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.