Serie A · resolved market
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf66c1a68dde973221274fc3d4eddfa36c6f5ae4b9167ea883e87da504e9dfecf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 8,086$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.87 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…22a3backed Yes | 23c | 2,300$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 80c | 1,537$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.4 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,520$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,448$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.06 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Yes | 20c | 1,239$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 78c | 1,059$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.1 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 20c | 1,015$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Yes | 10c | 1,013$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…edaabacked Yes | 2c | 999.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 22c | 971$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.62 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…018dbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 21c | 478$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 20c | 414.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 14c | 359.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e6…7bf4backed Yes | 17c | 322.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 19c | 313.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 260 | 46.9%122 W · 138 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…6b5cbacked Yes | 20c | 275$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe490…5a00backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…d802backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 23cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 80c | 195$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…92e3backed Yes | 19c | 189$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 14c | 140.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked No | 79c | 137.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 20c | 136$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 79c | 117.03$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1909…0e55backed Yes | 21c | 105.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce11…4a49backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…bedfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…85afbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57e…174ebacked Yes | 20c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…ce2abacked Yes | 20c | 86.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Yes | 20c | 79.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 80c | 75.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 80c | 63.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed No | 78c | 62.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…9486backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked No | 79c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 17.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-04?No won
- Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.