Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x698f0e145a37eb152868b09233efd2e601fbf1e6888b50b8556704e653c1415a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 4,793$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,803.26 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 3,684$2,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,946.79 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 3,424$2,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,653.51 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 18c | 3,251$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 37c | 1,909$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.12 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked No | 75c | 1,799$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 30c | 1,651$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.01 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 71c | 837$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.73 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Yes | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 59c | 416.25$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 75c | 319.43$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 44c | 282.27$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.21 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 239$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.62 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…b7e2backed Yes | 9c | 229.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +275.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 76c | 212.17$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 70c | 208.79$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 47c | 159.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9d05backed Yes | 24c | 133.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 22cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed No | 18c | 122.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943d…7aa1backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 51c | 49.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes | 24c | 41.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 80c | 31.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 76c | 29.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…88aabacked Yes | 46c | 28.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…d8aebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 79c | 17.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-22?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.