Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16970ebc8e96a608e1e428c7e82049766e57ed54994229341c604981687fc688
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf09d…115fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,930$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.53 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 1,593$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 1,119$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.11 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…aeecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 753.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 23c | 739.13$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 3c | 647.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 79c | 585.4$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…b7e2backed Yes | 4c | 523.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +275.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 3c | 395$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…34b2backed Yes | 5c | 385$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bd…bac5backed Yes | 7c | 354.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 22c | 352.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 78c | 352.05$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 21c | 343.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb93b…454bbacked Yes | 23c | 323.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed No | 79c | 292.23$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked No | 79c | 278.87$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 77c | 267.39$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 24c | 241.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 21c | 169.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb63…00b7backed Yes | 14c | 163.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 79c | 155$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…2a51backed Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…1437backed Yes | 15c | 136.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…185dbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…dc4cbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 76c | 128.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…70b1backed Yes | 23c | 105.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…8b5dbacked No | 78c | 102.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 79c | 99.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…606ebacked Yes | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 78c | 87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 77c | 74.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…f4d2backed Yes | 22c | 63.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Yes | 19c | 58.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Yes | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…5230backed Yes | 22c | 50.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ec…e4b4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 79c | 21.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 78c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-22?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.