World Politics · resolved market
Will NFP win the most seats in the French election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69be238c9338774e6de338ecda4481dd545e7636e5f370afac9909db21901970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3c0…f6d8backed No | 56c | 13,176$7,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,315.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 15c | 6,722$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,707.81 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…4cd2backed Yes | 9c | 5,749$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,249.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +229.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Yes | 12c | 5,561$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,892.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 9c | 3,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4a…0306backed Yes | 7c | 2,900$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,703 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +391.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20b…e068backed Yes | 11c | 2,792$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed Yes | 9c | 2,505$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,279.76 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…ea99backed No | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,882$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.1 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 58c | 1,715$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.91 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked Yes | 9c | 1,520$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…3dfdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,421$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…5386backed Yes | 9c | 1,222$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…0a34backed No | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 6c | 1,050$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +369%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…9ec2backed Yes | 30c | 1,022$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 21c | 854.08$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.59 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…680cbacked Yes | 9c | 655$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…2960backed Yes | 10c | 591.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +876.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…af1bbacked Yes | 9c | 550$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc831…9973backed Yes | 20c | 512.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8181…ea9ebacked Yes | 8c | 485.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +241.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 7c | 350$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…40c0backed Yes | 7c | 314.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +403.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…37eabacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed2…56e0backed Yes | 13c | 307.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +243.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 11c | 272.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…8bfdbacked Yes | 17c | 228.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556f…9263backed Yes | 9c | 225$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +524%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.16 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…fdc5backed Yes | 11c | 199.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 8c | 171.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.13 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…0e4fbacked Yes | 15c | 166.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes | 42c | 160.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…604fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…5140backed Yes | 49c | 101.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda9…91e9backed Yes | 18c | 100.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…d0e8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed Yes | 50c | 68.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NFP win the most seats in the French election?this page
- Will ENS win the most seats in the French election?No won
- Will RN/UXD win the most seats in the French election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.