World Politics · resolved market
Will RN/UXD win the most seats in the French election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0884f7440050e4cb54a27267438509f64bb7f9aa962c97cfc8ca91b5a862a99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 38c | 13,117$5,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,073.87 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…f6d8backed Yes | 74c | 12,325$9,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,152.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 9c | 6,866$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,267.64 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 10c | 6,169$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,563.33 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…4cd2backed No | 12c | 6,114$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,373.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +229.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 11c | 6,032$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,398.45 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b1…0a93backed Yes | 1c | 4,117$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…ea99backed Yes | 6c | 3,998$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…7704backed No | 10c | 3,117$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,817.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +939%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…cc08backed No | 9c | 2,893$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,626.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +171.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 8c | 2,741$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528.27 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 31c | 2,299$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.81 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…a526backed No | 8c | 1,873$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 11c | 1,500$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked No | 7c | 700$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +441.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked No | 14c | 651.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.57 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed No | 7c | 409.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.44 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3956backed No | 11c | 357.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a20…c028backed No | 8c | 343.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7def…1913backed No | 14c | 265.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RN/UXD win the most seats in the French election?this page
- Will ENS win the most seats in the French election?No won
- Will NFP win the most seats in the French election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.