Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69c22232dc910c704c74a60708d38155a13775188e1836f994531845203f1a0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 12c | 548.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 397.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 63c | 249.95$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.47 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 68c | 221.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…50c1backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 16c | 177.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 67c | 173.33$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 61c | 103.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 86.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 37c | 81.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 77.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…67e5backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 29c | 50.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 49c | 50.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 49.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 53c | 48.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 29c | 40.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 30c | 38.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed Yes | 36c | 34.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 32.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 28.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…3806backed Yes | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 27.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 38c | 26.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 65c | 24.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 69c | 17.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.