Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69d36728d5326890ac1bc5fc3e95c8bd27358464a72e62437fb60624e56f4310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,815 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked REKONIX | 17c | 5,610$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.1 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed REKONIX | 0c | 3,748$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ | 67c | 3,070$2,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.84 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked REKONIX | 30c | 2,007$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.21 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ | 73c | 1,611$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.47 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed MOUZ | 70c | 1,551$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.58 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ | 73c | 1,370$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.9 | 573 | 55.5%318 W · 255 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ | 67c | 1,311$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.63 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked MOUZ | 80c | 750$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed REKONIX | 18c | 708.85$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.49 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed REKONIX | 33c | 699.5$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.07 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed REKONIX | 29c | 675.07$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.77 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked REKONIX | 31c | 646.13$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1,197 | 59.2%709 W · 488 L | +63.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked MOUZ | 80c | 559.87$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked REKONIX | 30c | 551.58$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.52 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed REKONIX | 32c | 484.29$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.97 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed REKONIX | 29c | 450$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed MOUZ | 74c | 406.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc159…f3c8backed REKONIX | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…2c75backed REKONIX | 31c | 320.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed REKONIX | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…bbd7backed MOUZ | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX | 30c | 295.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed MOUZ | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked REKONIX | 15c | 238.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed REKONIX | 34c | 200.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked REKONIX | 10c | 194.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed MOUZ | 71c | 184.86$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed REKONIX | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed REKONIX | 22c | 106.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…1f08backed REKONIX | 18c | 94.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked REKONIX | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked MOUZ | 68c | 83.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked REKONIX | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed MOUZ | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…2d03backed MOUZ | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked MOUZ | 68c | 73.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked MOUZ | 68c | 71.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked REKONIX | 21c | 71.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed REKONIX | 31c | 66.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed MOUZ | 68c | 61.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ | 69c | 59.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8201…f97fbacked MOUZ | 69c | 50.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc59d…64adbacked MOUZ | 67c | 44.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed MOUZ | 76c | 40.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed MOUZ | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1259backed MOUZ | 68c | 31.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked MOUZ | 67c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked MOUZ | 71c | 27.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed MOUZ | 68c | 23.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…e433backed MOUZ | 68c | 22.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…54cebacked MOUZ | 67c | 22.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f2…a659backed MOUZ | 67c | 20.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x835c…8e3bbacked MOUZ | 68c | 19.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1019…d7cabacked MOUZ | 68c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed MOUZ | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 563 | 48.1%271 W · 292 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group AMOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.