Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80c1032f9125e2449b1980c6ce1f3338de1e6d078589c023e21c4b4df5d90e9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,954 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ | 68c | 14,556$9,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,669.77 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked REKONIX | 30c | 8,928$2,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675.43 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked REKONIX | 32c | 3,472$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed REKONIX | 33c | 1,700$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked REKONIX | 11c | 1,225$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed REKONIX | 21c | 1,035$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.61 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed REKONIX | 9c | 1,014$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked REKONIX | 32c | 1,013$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.56 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked REKONIX | 22c | 914.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed REKONIX | 19c | 763.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed REKONIX | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed REKONIX | 13c | 357.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked MOUZ | 68c | 347.47$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.19 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed MOUZ | 78c | 321$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed REKONIX | 22c | 320$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…2c75backed REKONIX | 36c | 272.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…1f08backed REKONIX | 16c | 236.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…c05fbacked REKONIX | 12c | 190$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 169 | 32.5%55 W · 114 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REKONIX | 11c | 161.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX | 9c | 105.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed MOUZ | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9a…6e9ebacked REKONIX | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed REKONIX | 21c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked REKONIX | 29c | 46.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed MOUZ | 79c | 43.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked REKONIX | 33c | 37.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadb…a190backed MOUZ | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed MOUZ | 69c | 28.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…fe5cbacked MOUZ | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed MOUZ | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group AMOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.