Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8165a320a3c4b8164906ae686e97e91bbd41c9d2185b5f2b62a26410707929e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,503 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed REKONIX | 17c | 1,800$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.04 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed REKONIX | 2c | 970$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed REKONIX | 34c | 616.89$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.19 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 62c | 481.39$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.7 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed REKONIX | 17c | 386.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ | 76c | 209.05$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed REKONIX | 38c | 200.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed REKONIX | 17c | 172.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…74c4backed REKONIX | 17c | 136.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed MOUZ | 56c | 119.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…3469backed MOUZ | 72c | 110.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 215 | 51.6%111 W · 104 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed REKONIX | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked MOUZ | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked MOUZ | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed MOUZ | 65c | 62.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed REKONIX | 38c | 58.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ | 68c | 54.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed MOUZ | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed MOUZ | 67c | 36.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed MOUZ | 66c | 36.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b70…ab35backed REKONIX | 46c | 29.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked MOUZ | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed MOUZ | 66c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed MOUZ | 68c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Athis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.