Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69fafc49c12f82ed43a0e16814d6a21570a33e1c6cb59470f693ab78e124395e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 1c | 4,941$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 809.22$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 19c | 629.14$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.54 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 4c | 380.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 302.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.51 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 293.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 26c | 259.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.67 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 240.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 231.72$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 66c | 228.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 21c | 201.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.64 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 189.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 164.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 146.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…bf61backed No | 70c | 142.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 16c | 142.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 140.61$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 118.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 117.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 100.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 23c | 84.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 28c | 76.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 27c | 65.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 65.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 65.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 25c | 64.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…fb4dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 58c | 62.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 56c | 62.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 37c | 61.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 56.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 34c | 51.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 29c | 47.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 47.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 44.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 25c | 42.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 26c | 41.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 33c | 40.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 36.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 65c | 35.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 35.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed Yes | 75c | 32.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 26.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 76c | 26.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 67c | 20.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 17.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 65c | 17.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…d4b3backed No | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…31c5backed No | 80c | 13.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.