Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc76f31a53a69a50c33a7989f40f2bc936d92b034b07dd82f92ee416bb3493bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 23c | 272.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 7c | 260.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 244.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 25c | 228.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 24c | 217.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 207.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 199$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 189.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 163.66$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 20c | 153.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 144.75$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 14c | 127.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 126.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 85.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 20c | 81.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 80.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 17c | 69.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 66.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 54.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 50.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 23c | 48.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 24c | 48.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 76c | 44.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 80c | 43.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 35.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 31.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed No | 75c | 30.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 76c | 28.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 26.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 21.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 76c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 77c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 19.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 80c | 18.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.