Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Fabian Marozsan vs Stan Wawrinka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a112c9ab0124062ef84026802cab3f73853c65e71f989c1ce949f0c06e38cef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marozsanof Marozsan, Wawrinka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Marozsan | 69c | 2,569$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Wawrinka | 33c | 2,542$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.84 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Marozsan | 67c | 2,422$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.2 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Marozsan | 72c | 2,058$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.67 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wawrinka | 35c | 1,762$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.21 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Wawrinka | 29c | 1,505$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.76 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Wawrinka | 29c | 1,312$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.68 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Wawrinka | 31c | 1,134$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.54 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Marozsan | 56c | 886.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.49 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Marozsan | 71c | 788$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.68 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Wawrinka | 28c | 725.29$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.2 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wawrinka | 27c | 666.52$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.31 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Wawrinka | 26c | 470.32$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa637…bacfbacked Marozsan | 69c | 436.01$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.16 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Marozsan | 60c | 417.17$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.17 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Wawrinka | 31c | 371$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Wawrinka | 33c | 304.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Wawrinka | 18c | 262.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Marozsan | 77c | 244.07$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marozsan | 67c | 230.21$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Wawrinka | 29c | 183.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Wawrinka | 35c | 174.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Wawrinka | 35c | 160.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Wawrinka | 26c | 159.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Marozsan | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Marozsan | 69c | 119.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Marozsan | 61c | 101.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Marozsan | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Marozsan | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Marozsan | 69c | 94.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Wawrinka | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Wawrinka | 23c | 64.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Marozsan | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Marozsan | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.