Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a2eb06b7474db2824895c7944e5609aef2bc80cc10e6ec593318cf8c42681e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 562.97$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 21c | 289.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.84 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 74c | 249.12$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 58c | 230.75$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked Yes | 19c | 197.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 48c | 174.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed Yes | 22c | 129.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 23c | 125.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed No | 11c | 123.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 73c | 118.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 14c | 116.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 12c | 113.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 112.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed Yes | 15c | 109.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f5…a261backed No | 17c | 100.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 96.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 89.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 26c | 87.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 77c | 82.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 70.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 79c | 60.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 22c | 56.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…2605backed No | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 53c | 55.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 50c | 53.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed Yes | 35c | 44.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed Yes | 49c | 44.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed Yes | 49c | 42.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked Yes | 49c | 38.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 35c | 37.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed Yes | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 34.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 34c | 34.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 71c | 32.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 66c | 31.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 31.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…733fbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 44c | 29.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 50c | 28.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed No | 49c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 25.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed No | 53c | 22.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 55c | 21.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…94a2backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 60c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…4066backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked Yes | 65c | 18.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 71c | 16.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked Yes | 76c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.