CS2 · resolved market
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a37d04bb9b08fe5c465ea4b0636ded231f3a95b954707021e83fb3da233390e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,141$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…b68abacked Yes | 11c | 671.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 317.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b3…a386backed Yes | 21c | 285$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 15c | 215$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 148 | 20.3%30 W · 118 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…2acabacked Yes | 12c | 207$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…bdc9backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…766abacked No | 78c | 192.38$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…0d3ebacked Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 13c | 76.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…0925backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…b13abacked No | 66c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 33 | 81.8%27 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.