NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a500da7dece14b1a0f39405530050a2b3805e0c1cd2665e8d6fdf9677ae79d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 52c | 4,057$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.89 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 3,398$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 2,289$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.39 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 1,975$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.02 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 48c | 1,810$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.02 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…b4b5backed Over | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Under | 52c | 1,538$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Over | 47c | 852.74$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.95 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Over | 50c | 606$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…11f4backed Over | 47c | 282.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13b4…6426backed Under | 53c | 86.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 49c | 86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…5ab0backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…a080backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…7659backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…1524backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b9d4backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. WizardsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.