NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6146215c677d5f3b297ca4ab0d76cd1a7d41104e804c16c6635c63b3a07cc2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 52c | 69,968$36,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,621.77 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 31,820$15,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,308.02 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 18,579$8,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,964.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 48c | 11,111$5,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,333.28 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 10,050$4,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,824 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 51c | 9,858$5,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,830.46 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 9,348$4,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,580.52 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 8,585$4,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,206.58 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 2,751$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 2,549$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.03 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 52c | 1,192$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.16 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 54c | 927.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.78 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Under | 51c | 901.96$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 729$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 703.5$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.72 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 48c | 570.25$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.11 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 49c | 306$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 287.36$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Under | 52c | 193.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…9104backed Over | 50c | 161.26$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Under | 49c | 128.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 49c | 121$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 52c | 84.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 48c | 50.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…b9dcbacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Under | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef7…ae5cbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. WizardsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.