NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5009e552485dabfc1caed2220129928f05064c02f4dedc9bc2c7f62736cda302
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Cavaliers | 51c | 82,115$41,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,315.3 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Wizards | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Wizards | 49c | 20,910$10,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,263.98 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Cavaliers | 50c | 19,800$9,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,900 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Wizards | 51c | 15,900$8,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,108.98 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 49c | 11,700$5,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,730.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Wizards | 49c | 7,829$3,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,842.06 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards | 49c | 7,500$3,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,675 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards | 49c | 6,530$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.7 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Cavaliers | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 49c | 4,360$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.02 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Cavaliers | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Cavaliers | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 49c | 2,240$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.46 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 49c | 1,912$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 1,754$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.63 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wizards | 48c | 1,031$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.88 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Cavaliers | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Cavaliers | 50c | 638$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.93 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…bffcbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 488.46$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Wizards | 51c | 392.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards | 50c | 328$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.94 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 49c | 325$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.13 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Wizards | 51c | 319.61$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…8893backed Cavaliers | 51c | 310$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Wizards | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Cavaliers | 52c | 211.75$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Wizards | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Cavaliers | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Wizards | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Cavaliers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Cavaliers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Wizards | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96e…8793backed Cavaliers | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…39aabacked Wizards | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Wizards | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 50c | 55.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…8fbabacked Cavaliers | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf1…e774backed Wizards | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c65…f62abacked Wizards | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Wizards | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Wizards | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…966ebacked Cavaliers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…5c56backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…40d6backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…92f4backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. WizardsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.