NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc570a7d6a2d3b14e151a809b14bc40da100772339e1643db7bfe313a3029500b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 4,039$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 818$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.75 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Under | 56c | 803.57$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 45c | 585$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.75 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 584.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.74 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b4…6426backed Under | 55c | 343.45$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Under | 56c | 232.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 56c | 153.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Under | 56c | 130.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Under | 56c | 116.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0407backed Under | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…03efbacked Under | 54c | 47.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6156…6ad5backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…2414backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c28…bc2cbacked Under | 56c | 17.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. WizardsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.