South American Leagues · resolved market
Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a57661b00edf19b3b035d28c6e7520ac4f9579e156a8db6a94d723e751a92fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,354$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.84 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 30c | 620$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.51 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 373.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 30c | 227.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2830…0584backed Under | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 69c | 181$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 69c | 147$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 69c | 124$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 69c | 121$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 69c | 118$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 17c | 104.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 69c | 97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 69c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 69c | 89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 69c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Under | 69c | 79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Under | 69c | 71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Over | 31c | 67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Over | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bbe8backed Over | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 69c | 39.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 71c | 37.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Over | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Over | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Under | 70c | 31.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 75cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 66c | 29.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.