Tennis · resolved market
ITF Kassel: Adrian Oetzbach vs Justin Schlageter
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a6be9e4784c8ce2b743dd1d5b56a5abdece8fc60a1096ee1bb9ac2da73c12ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adrian Oetzbachof Adrian Oetzbach, Justin Schlageter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed Justin Schlageter | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 253 | 49%124 W · 129 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Justin Schlageter | 47c | 396.51$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.34 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Adrian Oetzbach | 58c | 372.74$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.67 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 53c | 264.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.35 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…a593backed Adrian Oetzbach | 44c | 228.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.77 | 429 | 30.5%131 W · 298 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Justin Schlageter | 46c | 210$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Adrian Oetzbach | 55c | 159.45$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Justin Schlageter | 45c | 146$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 552 | 41.3%228 W · 324 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…f9bbbacked Justin Schlageter | 41c | 130.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Adrian Oetzbach | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 354 | 57.3%203 W · 151 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Justin Schlageter | 43c | 99.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Justin Schlageter | 18c | 99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Adrian Oetzbach | 53c | 97.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Adrian Oetzbach | 50c | 68.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Adrian Oetzbach | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Adrian Oetzbach | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 55c | 47.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 348 | 64.1%223 W · 125 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Justin Schlageter | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Justin Schlageter | 56c | 28.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Justin Schlageter | 48c | 22.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Justin Schlageter | 48c | 21.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 73c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 139 | 65.5%91 W · 48 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.