Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a7ebc56b8f26fcaa463123966e42ac94c54fab7e568a34b44a2119e60e28e78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,470 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nigma Galaxy | 0c | 4,484$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 1,559$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.91 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Aurora | 78c | 1,169$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 961.24$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.74 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 887.51$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.38 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora | 74c | 745.27$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Aurora | 78c | 514.81$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…f092backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 499.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 78c | 498.64$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 458.61$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…6d61backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 449.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Aurora | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora | 76c | 324.03$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 16c | 267.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 253$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 224.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…0263backed Aurora | 79c | 220$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…b084backed Aurora | 77c | 210$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Aurora | 80c | 169.48$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 146.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…db93backed Aurora | 77c | 129.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Aurora | 78c | 129.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 126$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3c…3206backed Aurora | 79c | 125.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf242…9e61backed Nigma Galaxy | 9c | 119.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7037…2bbabacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…ced0backed Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 99.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…2ce9backed Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 99.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f2…000ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 99.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 86.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Aurora | 70c | 86.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Aurora | 75c | 84.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…bfcabacked Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 71.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Aurora | 78c | 65.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Aurora | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…d603backed Aurora | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Aurora | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Aurora | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…5238backed Aurora | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Aurora | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.