Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x794479c5cfa2859fca47f9c7d778738491ffec1d8afce6f5b615c34cd28f605d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,413 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed Aurora | 76c | 9,884$7,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.25 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Nigma Galaxy | 19c | 2,670$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.3 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 18c | 2,518$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.05 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 19c | 2,433$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.58 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed Aurora | 77c | 1,987$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.02 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 12c | 1,399$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.72 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 16c | 1,300$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…bbd7backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 925.83$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 821.76$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Nigma Galaxy | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 650$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…5213backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Aurora | 77c | 487.88$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 399.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Aurora | 77c | 324$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora | 77c | 287.95$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 209.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Aurora | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 146.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…bef0backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 303 | 36.6%111 W · 192 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Aurora | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 454 | 57.5%261 W · 193 L | +39.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…7807backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Aurora | 77c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…1e8bbacked Aurora | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…2332backed Aurora | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.