Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a52b76c00182fea574f8a329deedbd91e885585d649c885dc527ee470a0aa25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,043 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 74c | 12,000$8,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,127.49 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed Aurora | 75c | 11,914$8,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,031.4 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nigma Galaxy | 0c | 7,400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 5,990$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.38 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Nigma Galaxy | 18c | 4,608$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.06 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 4,188$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.31 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 3,785$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.73 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…ab65backed Aurora | 75c | 3,718$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.43 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 3,513$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.75 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 2,733$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.47 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 2,520$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Aurora | 74c | 2,180$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.76 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 2,022$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.84 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Aurora | 75c | 1,969$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.65 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 1,850$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.5 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 1,200$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked Aurora | 78c | 1,000$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.8 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Aurora | 65c | 823.44$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.7 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 796.33$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.05 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 640.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 592.13$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 73c | 579.33$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 577.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…bbd7backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 569.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 524.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.9 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Aurora | 78c | 507.38$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.17 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 171 | 33.9%58 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 500$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.75 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…405dbacked Aurora | 76c | 430$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee0…f8f9backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 430$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…62aabacked Aurora | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…2b54backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Aurora | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Aurora | 72c | 299.61$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 234$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 229.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 221.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed Aurora | 75c | 217.69$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 202.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Aurora | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 454 | 57.5%261 W · 193 L | +39.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 153.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 149.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Aurora | 75c | 105.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb95…7e94backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 94.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 87.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 80.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…7807backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 65.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…6074backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 60.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…90c8backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 51.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Aurora | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 43.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…fc0ebacked Aurora | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Aurora | 60c | 40.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…ad9cbacked Aurora | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Aurora | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 75cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Aurora | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Aurora | 75c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…5238backed Aurora | 75c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Aurora | 60c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…9ab8backed Aurora | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Aurora | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…90a9backed Aurora | 74c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.