Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a8e121f13aee368dbcc9eb463615f320fc323a31c893d308cceda50fcfec885
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 0c | 5,126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 834.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 630.24$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 274.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 187.36$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed Yes | 9c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 22c | 171.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 170$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 21c | 155.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 15c | 109.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 87.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 80.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked No | 76c | 65.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 60.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 21c | 53.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 28.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 75c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.