Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dd89f84a02310a78afa9d71dbcbf3fb382705fe0dded9d721870b198947283c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 1c | 1,056$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 22c | 817.39$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.19 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 694.86$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 62c | 587.38$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 6c | 560.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 63c | 529.23$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.99 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 31c | 484.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.03 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 66c | 455.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.06 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 72c | 416.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 41c | 396.14$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.25 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 15c | 362.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 357.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 59c | 351.52$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.75 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 28c | 342.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 8c | 300.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 39c | 261.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 39c | 250$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 76c | 249.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 65c | 230$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 53c | 220.06$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 218.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 40c | 197.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 181.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 38c | 178.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 61c | 169.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 38c | 163.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 29c | 159.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 63c | 158$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 68c | 154.87$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 154.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.72 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 14c | 139.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 15c | 136.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 63c | 135.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 44c | 135$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 69c | 125.95$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 122.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 70c | 121.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed No | 16c | 119.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 108.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 43c | 108$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…ed3bbacked Yes | 64c | 101$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 64c | 100.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 98.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148c…cffcbacked Yes | 79c | 98.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 19c | 98.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 93.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 57c | 84.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 35c | 82.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 70c | 82.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 75c | 78.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 65c | 77.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 63c | 76.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 77c | 71.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 46c | 70.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 49c | 68.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 35c | 63.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 61.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 70c | 58.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 74c | 57.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 69c | 57.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 39c | 56.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 56c | 52.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 78c | 52.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 48.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 77c | 45.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 43.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 43.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed No | 38c | 42.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed Yes | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 35c | 41.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 44c | 40.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 69c | 38.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 38c | 36.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes | 68c | 35.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 44c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 64c | 33.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 62c | 33.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34c…9fecbacked Yes | 76c | 32.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.