TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,230

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7353…b6c5backed No1c1,056$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8518347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No22c817.39$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1965625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No28c694.86$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.854,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed Yes62c587.38$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.22560%15 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No6c560.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.822,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes63c529.23$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.9942849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes31c484.03$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.0321236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes66c455.9$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.062,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes72c416.34$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5832132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No41c396.14$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.256845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No15c362.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6556322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c357.84$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.776,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed Yes59c351.52$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.758560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No28c342.01$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.913,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed No8c300.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8627328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No39c261.61$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No39c250$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.51,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes76c249.5$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a41…2562backed Yes65c230$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.97055.7%39 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes53c220.06$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3140265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No30c218.21$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.894,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes40c197.56$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.152,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No66c181.12$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.932,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No38c178.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0117553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes61c169.3$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No38c163.67$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.41,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No29c159.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.941,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4639966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3d0…158abacked Yes68c154.87$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.862748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes33c154.71$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.721,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No14c139.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.435054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No15c136.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes63c135.05$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.122,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No44c135$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3263143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes69c125.95$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6742820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No16c122.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes70c121.8$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3741966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No16c119.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No29c108.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.171,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed No43c108$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5625747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c18…ed3bbacked Yes64c101$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.36366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8867…7683backed Yes64c100.72$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.37240.3%29 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3814054.3%76 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3821340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3949646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c98.88$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x148c…cffcbacked Yes79c98.42$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd456…8a8bbacked No19c98.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.54542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c93.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.045,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes57c84.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0681558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No13c83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.954,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No35c82.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8665353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes70c82.43$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.42,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No34c80$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0215236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes75c78.1$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1922550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd071…92ccbacked Yes65c77.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.141353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes63c76.21$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2135264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes77c71.29$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.314776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No46c70.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.21,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No49c68.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.232,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No35c63.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.116045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No50c61.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.664,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.63,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes70c58.41$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3653951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a87…911fbacked Yes74c57.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.035257.7%30 W · 22 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+38.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes69c57.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8610463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0751…073abacked No39c56.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1219255.2%106 W · 86 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes62c55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.823668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes56c52.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8922849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed Yes78c52.18$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.439769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.580560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.24,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.515334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.517831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes63c48.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.853,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes77c45.85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.352,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No71c45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.952,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.184,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No37c43.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.129,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes69c43.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4824751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes34c43.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.541,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e09…2116backed No38c42.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.342231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2837…fd84backed Yes62c42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.064161%25 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes36c41.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6782742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked No35c41.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3554335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No44c40.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.831,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.224841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5712157%69 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.789951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes69c38.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.972,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No38c36.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0454253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes68c35.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.252748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No44c35.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes55c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7515345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6828742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No64c33.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.321,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked No62c33.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6216733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa34c…9fecbacked Yes76c32.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.95366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.