Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d778bb6e9ae4eacc94c3da1724d9bc2e3f30d16cab0e1357f9a606af86ea968
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bcd…28a1backed No | 73c | 660.77$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 7c | 601.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 26c | 587.13$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 479.48$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 383.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 21c | 354.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 323.03$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 28c | 313.14$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 231.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 13c | 223.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 222.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…81adbacked Yes | 25c | 185.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 70c | 182.52$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 13c | 158.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 155.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 9c | 151.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 139.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 25c | 128$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 126$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 22c | 121.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 119$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 116$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 28c | 111$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 107.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 101.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 100.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd231…633cbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 28c | 94.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 94.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 13c | 82.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 75.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 74.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 15c | 74.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 74.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 69.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 68.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 67.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 65.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…8ec5backed Yes | 31c | 64.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 66c | 60.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 60.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 58.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 30c | 55.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 52.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c84…593ebacked Yes | 22c | 50.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 43.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 28c | 38.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 75c | 36.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 71c | 34.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 69c | 33.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 26.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 23.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ae…133ebacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 74c | 18.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 74c | 18.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.