Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aaa7f6a4fe0f6b1da2848d4148b87dc3bf62965662a1efe6fad98a051777b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked Down | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 47c | 223$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 46c | 208.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed Down | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed Down | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked Down | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7c…b0ecbacked Up | 48c | 199.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 79c | 159.28$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Up | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…65e8backed Down | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Down | 49c | 91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e8…eb96backed Up | 78c | 63.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…0945backed Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f7…75fbbacked Down | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fd…cda3backed Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…fc24backed Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5720…0fc1backed Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…5353backed Up | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…23b1backed Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d4…f09bbacked Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1770…3292backed Up | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…cc22backed Down | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…9862backed Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…7660backed Down | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…ae16backed Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1692…0b9cbacked Up | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +176.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6eb…8761backed Up | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdb…ba6cbacked Up | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…5a24backed Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…e5b5backed Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…4322backed Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Down | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…9fa1backed Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Up | 74c | 48.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…9402backed Up | 49c | 47.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…4f99backed Up | 74c | 43.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.