TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,840 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5556…2759backed Under78c534.83$419 inWon+$116.0929243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe075…bf89backed Over21c514.29$108 inLost-$1083240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…4084backed Under78c500$390 inWon+$110837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5a…9ef7backed Over25c298.99$75 inLost-$74.71741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…2d49backed Under75c293.99$220 inWon+$73.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Over21c261.9$55 inLost-$555158.8%30 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Over21c195.5$41 inLost-$41.065556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked Over25c182.57$46 inLost-$45.644452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53d6…13b5backed Over21c66.57$14 inLost-$13.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.