Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76bbf1923d67689e73b2ef19cd081d0ff146a48d88627a26e1a7eea6942a9836
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LGD Gamingof Amaru Gaming, LGD Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed LGD Gaming | 74c | 2,705$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.52 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Amaru Gaming | 24c | 2,555$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.31 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Amaru Gaming | 12c | 1,689$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.41 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Amaru Gaming | 13c | 1,644$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.99 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Amaru Gaming | 13c | 1,293$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.14 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Amaru Gaming | 13c | 1,204$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.33 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Amaru Gaming | 19c | 1,112$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.01 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Amaru Gaming | 8c | 1,085$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Amaru Gaming | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Amaru Gaming | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Amaru Gaming | 13c | 888.54$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Amaru Gaming | 17c | 880.03$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.52 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…0d40backed Amaru Gaming | 11c | 869.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Amaru Gaming | 13c | 773.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed LGD Gaming | 77c | 750.58$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.19 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Amaru Gaming | 9c | 651$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Amaru Gaming | 13c | 640.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Amaru Gaming | 9c | 629.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed Amaru Gaming | 27c | 540.43$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed Amaru Gaming | 10c | 504.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Amaru Gaming | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked Amaru Gaming | 9c | 493.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Amaru Gaming | 21c | 479.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked LGD Gaming | 72c | 476.71$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.48 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Amaru Gaming | 10c | 472$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Amaru Gaming | 14c | 471.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Amaru Gaming | 12c | 434.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Amaru Gaming | 16c | 400.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9901backed Amaru Gaming | 15c | 391.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc6…13c4backed Amaru Gaming | 10c | 360$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Amaru Gaming | 17c | 340$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8154…7d37backed Amaru Gaming | 9c | 324.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 202 | 33.2%67 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Amaru Gaming | 6c | 319.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Amaru Gaming | 17c | 297.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…a117backed Amaru Gaming | 10c | 277.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed Amaru Gaming | 8c | 268.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 207 | 67.1%139 W · 68 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…d109backed Amaru Gaming | 23c | 226.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked LGD Gaming | 77c | 213.39$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed Amaru Gaming | 24c | 211$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…baf1backed Amaru Gaming | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Amaru Gaming | 10c | 149.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…079bbacked Amaru Gaming | 10c | 148.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…97c2backed Amaru Gaming | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Amaru Gaming | 11c | 137.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Amaru Gaming | 9c | 126.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed LGD Gaming | 74c | 125$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed Amaru Gaming | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d643backed Amaru Gaming | 10c | 118.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…9f08backed Amaru Gaming | 13c | 113.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Amaru Gaming | 17c | 105.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07c…46fbbacked Amaru Gaming | 10c | 103.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Amaru Gaming | 13c | 91.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Amaru Gaming | 12c | 87.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…2c2ebacked Amaru Gaming | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5)LGD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.