TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
LGD Gamingof Amaru Gaming, LGD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,369
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,369 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x048f…9992backed Amaru Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Amaru Gaming9c1,000$90 inLost-$9081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Amaru Gaming16c986.51$158 inLost-$158.1529243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Amaru Gaming8c606.61$49 inLost-$48.531,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Amaru Gaming6c531.93$30 inLost-$30.3556945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Amaru Gaming3c491$15 inLost-$14.7358746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Amaru Gaming3c406$12 inLost-$12.341,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Amaru Gaming10c387.5$40 inLost-$39.782,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Amaru Gaming17c351.89$62 inLost-$61.5810036%36 W · 64 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Amaru Gaming7c274.77$21 inLost-$20.511,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Amaru Gaming23c200$46 inLost-$468248.8%40 W · 42 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Amaru Gaming9c116.5$10 inLost-$1039042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Amaru Gaming19c108$21 inLost-$20.528739.1%34 W · 53 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1dcb…9f08backed Amaru Gaming15c102.18$15 inLost-$151414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked LGD Gaming78c90.7$70 inWon+$20.3889238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.