TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
LGD Gamingof Amaru Gaming, LGD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,086 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52b7…0aa1backed Amaru Gaming5c8,000$400 inLost-$40081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Amaru Gaming5c1,612$77 inLost-$76.5416539.4%65 W · 100 L-0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Amaru Gaming5c1,311$66 inLost-$65.551926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+47%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Amaru Gaming8c1,258$96 inLost-$96.075836.2%21 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Amaru Gaming8c1,127$87 inLost-$87.2223736.7%87 W · 150 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Amaru Gaming12c1,114$129 inLost-$128.6429243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Amaru Gaming4c1,111$40 inLost-$39.5758746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked Amaru Gaming5c1,096$55 inLost-$54.791163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Amaru Gaming4c799.99$32 inLost-$3232441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42dd…5d2bbacked Amaru Gaming7c688.97$48 inLost-$48.231957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Amaru Gaming7c610.25$40 inLost-$4048843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Amaru Gaming3c558.27$17 inLost-$17.312227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked Amaru Gaming8c502.21$39 inLost-$38.7613435.8%48 W · 86 L-9.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Amaru Gaming5c500.1$25 inLost-$25.0119643.9%86 W · 110 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked Amaru Gaming5c500$25 inLost-$252050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Amaru Gaming10c494.73$49 inLost-$49.512740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Amaru Gaming9c478.63$45 inLost-$44.6910036%36 W · 64 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Amaru Gaming6c433.55$26 inLost-$26.2889238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc29c…1e43backed Amaru Gaming5c422.41$20 inLost-$204250%21 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x888d…290cbacked Amaru Gaming4c250$10 inLost-$101050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Amaru Gaming5c200$10 inLost-$106529.2%19 W · 46 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-45.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0694…ddf4backed Amaru Gaming9c140.56$13 inLost-$12.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.