Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a96a0216a1ce84f3542403d97937b350b9936a026c4b038c9cf5dc228c9d048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LGD Gamingof LGD Gaming, Amaru Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5556…2759backed Amaru Gaming | 26c | 1,262$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.84 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed LGD Gaming | 76c | 524.69$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed LGD Gaming | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked LGD Gaming | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Amaru Gaming | 24c | 150.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Amaru Gaming | 31c | 46.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Amaru Gaming | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked LGD Gaming | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed LGD Gaming | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd5…28f2backed LGD Gaming | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.