NFL · resolved market
Spread: JAX (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ab4493ca7b998d968e844786030071c9d60325aaf5c528e346abd1578e3861b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- JAXof JAX, HOU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked HOU | 49c | 3,255$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.91 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed JAX | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked JAX | 54c | 886.55$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.81 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed HOU | 50c | 734.4$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed JAX | 50c | 599.22$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed HOU | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked HOU | 51c | 204.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed JAX | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…793bbacked JAX | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed HOU | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked JAX | 49c | 148.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked HOU | 46c | 136.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked HOU | 51c | 125$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…9434backed HOU | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…ad4bbacked HOU | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked JAX | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed JAX | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156f…6887backed HOU | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…9da7backed HOU | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed HOU | 49c | 39.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed HOU | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed JAX | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked JAX | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked HOU | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked JAX | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed JAX | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: JAX (-1.5)this page
- Spread: JAX (-2.5)JAX won
- Spread: JAX (-3.5)JAX won
- Texans vs. JaguarsJaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.