Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ac0a7da9e0dff1a6230138b745052f66b33927a3b0ecfe5db36ddc7a08ceba0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf97…2cb3backed Over | 70c | 4,482$3,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 38c | 4,277$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Over | 53c | 3,488$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 46c | 3,155$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 23c | 1,750$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 55c | 931.65$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…5390backed Over | 73c | 699.4$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Over | 56c | 676.98$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 73c | 666.66$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 11c | 654.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Over | 51c | 587.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 20c | 511.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 61c | 488.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.4 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 246.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 165.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308b…b223backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 146.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…eb27backed Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 73c | 136.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 47c | 116$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…e455backed Over | 79c | 109.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…bf2ebacked Under | 53c | 66.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Over | 53c | 63.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…f417backed Over | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Under | 49c | 40.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 55c | 35.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 46c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf61…1e34backed Over | 66c | 20.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 0.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.