Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa5700caca605afaf9e7626464cb3b59a647c8501c493b51b10f0f98b544e0ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 1c | 9,866$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 2c | 4,500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 10c | 4,219$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 2,758$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 44c | 2,349$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 1c | 2,274$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 2c | 1,350$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…9c73backed Over | 77c | 1,289$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Under | 5c | 993.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 56c | 991.5$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.26 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 50c | 820$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 502.25$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.59 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…2224backed Over | 55c | 364.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 16c | 341.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 340.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.28 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 280.96$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 49c | 271.12$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…fcb2backed Over | 46c | 269.06$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 11c | 224.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…9e9bbacked Over | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…2322backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Over | 49c | 142.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 137.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 55c | 136.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Under | 44c | 120.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 46c | 108.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 56c | 93.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Under | 46c | 85.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 77c | 78.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 54c | 64.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 73c | 59.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 72c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d16…addabacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 42c | 44.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 76c | 38.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 46c | 31.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…1ddfbacked Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Over | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…fbe1backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 61c | 24.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Over | 50c | 24.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Under | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Under | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 0.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.