Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6bfc84ee86d3cf54ac68922305e2dbc54c3b362f7f53501213b60a5dbf33be1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 61c | 16,393$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,393.43 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 7,948$3,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,796.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 39c | 7,698$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 4,222$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.92 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 46c | 1,869$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…d1ccbacked Under | 47c | 1,684$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 39c | 1,547$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 48c | 999.98$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Under | 3c | 666.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 3c | 564.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 21c | 529.29$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 36c | 452.93$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.34 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Over | 52c | 311.17$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.36 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…eb27backed Under | 72c | 277.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 42c | 257.4$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 16c | 222.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 47c | 218.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Over | 56c | 186.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 23c | 165.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 54c | 152.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 34c | 134.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 70c | 130.7$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 44c | 105.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 24c | 85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 81.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 58c | 74.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 48c | 74.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 46c | 73.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 53c | 72.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 76c | 69.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…ca43backed Over | 29c | 65.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ca…ac4cbacked Under | 51c | 64.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 56c | 63.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07c6…1c5bbacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Over | 34c | 59.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 68c | 53.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 76c | 51.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 75cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…7762backed Over | 67c | 50.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 50.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under | 38c | 50.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdc…9b4cbacked Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 67c | 49.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 47.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Over | 73c | 44.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 43.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 44c | 42.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 40c | 42.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 55c | 42.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Under | 74c | 41.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…bf6cbacked Under | 48c | 41.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 68c | 39.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 48c | 39.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 52c | 38.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 32c | 36.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 57c | 36.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Over | 64c | 35.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked Under | 69c | 34.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…020cbacked Under | 39c | 33.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…564dbacked Under | 46c | 31.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…0bbfbacked Under | 50c | 26.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 65c | 23.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 43c | 23.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 48c | 21.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Under | 68c | 18.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 64c | 16.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 0.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.