Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a1c44af88a7a2bf0d4c1c5a254f30a28d7c3fc2aa7621a6f4bd60fd62aeb89c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 55c | 2,595$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.75 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 43c | 2,281$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.5 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 43c | 1,607$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 38c | 1,124$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.22 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed No | 5c | 851.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8c…329fbacked Yes | 62c | 609.18$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed Yes | 58c | 514.14$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 64c | 212.64$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 39c | 210.14$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 63c | 206.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 64c | 189.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 164.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Yes | 62c | 133.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 61c | 90.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 65c | 51.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 38c | 44.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Yes | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…20b0backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 38c | 31.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Yes | 58c | 27.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 41c | 25.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Yes | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Yes | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 0.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.