CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ad061d63f2c1a53ff796cb5de1b4b0364e616ddf5932d3ad29334d73de271c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SPARTAof SPARTA, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked SPARTA | 59c | 2,499$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.72 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 29c | 1,684$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.86 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa902…d159backed SPARTA | 74c | 1,626$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Ursa | 51c | 1,195$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.3 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 29c | 1,037$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.42 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked SPARTA | 70c | 820.8$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.39 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Ursa | 29c | 747.2$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.84 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Ursa | 57c | 488.17$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 530 | 34.7%184 W · 346 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SPARTA | 70c | 460.89$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Ursa | 20c | 340$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 1,278 | 21.9%280 W · 998 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ursa | 37c | 327.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…3d3bbacked SPARTA | 56c | 276.32$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed SPARTA | 77c | 195.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 212 | 47.6%101 W · 111 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked SPARTA | 69c | 170.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…441bbacked SPARTA | 74c | 159.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed SPARTA | 68c | 150.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ursa | 35c | 147.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1522…70febacked Ursa | 36c | 115.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 366 | 45.6%167 W · 199 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked Ursa | 36c | 115.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked SPARTA | 79c | 109.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 345 | 42.3%146 W · 199 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Ursa | 28c | 108.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…d75cbacked SPARTA | 55c | 90.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked SPARTA | 78c | 86.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 503 | 58.6%295 W · 208 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ursa | 24c | 74.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed SPARTA | 67c | 71.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 200 | 67%134 W · 66 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Ursa | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked SPARTA | 57c | 43.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…cdc2backed SPARTA | 59c | 42.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ursa | 33c | 32.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a51…4ef6backed SPARTA | 77c | 31.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…31cbbacked Ursa | 52c | 28.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageSPARTA won
- Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerSPARTA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.