Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ae0b7936f183c41d983f9d3ee00ddf53d509620ac296b8283f7985b9c771427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Level UPof Level UP, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,321 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Level UP | 77c | 2,567$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.6 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 23c | 1,833$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.61 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe491…ccd1backed Level UP | 73c | 1,394$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Level UP | 59c | 1,151$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.02 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nemiga Gaming | 22c | 1,118$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.53 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 1,038$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.68 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Nemiga Gaming | 29c | 808.3$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.94 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Nemiga Gaming | 13c | 783.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 526.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Level UP | 76c | 523.62$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.91 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 438.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Level UP | 59c | 438.84$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.86 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Level UP | 75c | 417.72$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Level UP | 58c | 353.62$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 338.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Level UP | 72c | 316.4$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Level UP | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.81 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 23c | 257.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 182.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126a…2e3ebacked Level UP | 54c | 140.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nemiga Gaming | 22c | 132.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 129.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed Level UP | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Level UP | 49c | 98.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 96.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Level UP | 75c | 93.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…a091backed Nemiga Gaming | 12c | 84.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nemiga Gaming | 18c | 67.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 57.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Level UP | 76c | 50.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee6…0668backed Level UP | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Level UP | 69c | 44.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed Level UP | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Level UP | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed Level UP | 48c | 24.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…01e9backed Level UP | 48c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed Level UP | 54c | 22.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Level UP | 54c | 22.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Level UP | 59c | 20.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Level UP | 64c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Level UP | 64c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed Level UP | 59c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Level UP | 68c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Level UP | 68c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Level UP | 74c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group BNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.