TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Level UP vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Level UPof Level UP, Nemiga Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,321 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Level UP77c2,567$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.686949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Nemiga Gaming23c1,833$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.6118746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe491…ccd1backed Level UP73c1,394$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3782650%13 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Level UP59c1,151$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.0266662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nemiga Gaming22c1,118$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.531,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Nemiga Gaming31c1,038$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.6851751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Nemiga Gaming29c808.3$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9455147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Nemiga Gaming13c783.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011648.3%56 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Nemiga Gaming26c526.49$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.67714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-80.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Level UP76c523.62$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9136759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Nemiga Gaming21c438.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1251049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Level UP59c438.84$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.862,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Level UP75c417.72$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1146649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Level UP58c353.62$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.012,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga Gaming30c338.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.011,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Level UP72c316.4$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5918745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Level UP49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.8177458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Nemiga Gaming23c257.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.25932.2%19 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Nemiga Gaming55c182.41$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x126a…2e3ebacked Level UP54c140.61$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.881668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nemiga Gaming22c132.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.252,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Nemiga Gaming44c129.48$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3344645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed Level UP46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.77448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Level UP49c98.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4657654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Nemiga Gaming25c96.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.178516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Level UP75c93.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7728544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb436…a091backed Nemiga Gaming12c84.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nemiga Gaming18c67.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked Nemiga Gaming26c57.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.073551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Level UP76c50.41$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0122456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ee6…0668backed Level UP79c44.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed Level UP69c44.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8946150.8%234 W · 227 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256e…1867backed Level UP69c36.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.231353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed Level UP58c34.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.540047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff1…12e4backed Level UP48c24.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8612937.2%48 W · 81 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc8b…01e9backed Level UP48c22.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.794443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1676…ab19backed Level UP54c22.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.315545.5%25 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked Level UP54c22.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3122740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked Level UP59c20.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4128846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbd30…9a01backed Level UP64c18.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.816054.4%87 W · 73 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Level UP64c18.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.833854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…6237backed Level UP59c18.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.716149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked Level UP68c17.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.614963.1%94 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81fe…4089backed Level UP68c17.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.613262.9%83 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked Level UP74c16.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2413762.8%86 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.