Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ed15b72ac2b66a70a434cfddc3156952e73b79bbcc2d3dd677ce0bcb9e04796
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Level UP, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,077 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 64c | 3,422$2,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.42 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Level UP | 46c | 3,229$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.39 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 1,220$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.26 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed Level UP | 62c | 537.76$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.02 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Level UP | 29c | 427.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Level UP | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Nemiga Gaming | 58c | 368.45$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.14 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 343.75$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 291.39$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.93 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Level UP | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 66c | 235.39$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 217.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Level UP | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 197.09$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 196.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 129.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Level UP | 34c | 105.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Level UP | 48c | 95.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Level UP | 30c | 77.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Level UP | 33c | 54.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 54.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 50.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Nemiga Gaming | 64c | 40.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 34.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Level UP | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Level UP | 55c | 23.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Level UP | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group BNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLevel UP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.