Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6af04ac1316682c7ff65c400275a06c24ed425881d1161b9f1bc800837ec8774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 331.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 216.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 139.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 63c | 128$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 634 | 60.3%382 W · 252 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 125.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 105.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 29c | 99.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 632 | 21.8%138 W · 494 L | -33.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 53c | 88.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 28c | 83.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 74.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…b662backed Yes | 28c | 70.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 18c | 67.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 65.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 62.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…a2edbacked No | 61c | 55.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 50.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…a354backed Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 39.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 39.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 51c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 56c | 37.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 56c | 36.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 62c | 32.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 390 | 70.5%275 W · 115 L | +65.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 53c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 68c | 27.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 27.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed No | 61c | 26.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 74c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e3…f73fbacked No | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb285…0fecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.