Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on January 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6af8c2dc8213f9cda55f5af41fbc796fc715bc80fe0db42dd50c3c6d9d9ea1fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,979$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 1,840$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 2c | 1,285$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 931.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 14c | 522.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 19c | 347.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…5d74backed Yes | 7c | 335.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db1…2222backed No | 75c | 310.72$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 16c | 286.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc685…1100backed Yes | 26c | 217.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 10c | 209.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 16c | 201.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b74…6516backed Yes | 11c | 177.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 9c | 174.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 169.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 15c | 128.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…8078backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 91.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…ca06backed Yes | 19c | 79.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 32c | 74.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…6a86backed Yes | 21c | 64.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on January 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.