Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81078b51ba9c27667c70bb43a5ea258d3548d69932611667a100b88ebbb037bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 22c | 345.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 310$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 19c | 190$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…536cbacked Yes | 58c | 146.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 134.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 65c | 95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed No | 17c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…4cd1backed Yes | 50c | 75.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 58c | 70.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed Yes | 73c | 65.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…e30fbacked Yes | 75c | 57.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 69c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa4…9608backed Yes | 57c | 35.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 34.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 56c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…2b4cbacked No | 46c | 32.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f7…919bbacked Yes | 65c | 30.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…eb30backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab2…9791backed No | 63c | 30.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…ca06backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…1a18backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…659ebacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb989…8f74backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ce…e76bbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9f2ebacked Yes | 56c | 17.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.