Champions League · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Athletic Bilbao end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6afbe23cff78c441b6f6109f2613c1abbe60fec573199fcfd3ef57f74c3e0d91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c20…bafdbacked Yes | 26c | 10,005$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cd…9367backed No | 74c | 10,001$7,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 6,333$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.63 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 74c | 6,000$4,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 1c | 4,010$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 74c | 3,939$2,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.14 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 26c | 3,495$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.66 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 73c | 1,261$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.51 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 663.7$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.2 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 26c | 502.53$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 27c | 322$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 25c | 249.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 75c | 112.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8657…5741backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…b0bcbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 27c | 103.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 80c | 92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 14c | 83.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…3aabbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 35.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked No | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Athletic Bilbao end in a draw?this page
- Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-10-01?No won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.