Champions League · resolved market
Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-10-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb088d589985e962cb5e13770ab15f96ee39c272a95482d40c00cc415841cc943
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $416,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 4c | 182,814$7,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,312.54 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 1c | 18,489$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 19c | 10,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 286 | 43.7%125 W · 161 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 80c | 4,276$3,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.25 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 1c | 2,618$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 2,550$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.93 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,447$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…91dabacked Yes | 22c | 2,273$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 20c | 1,820$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.27 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 80c | 1,522$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -9.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 80c | 1,275$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 20c | 999.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.67 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 18c | 938.14$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.32 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 78c | 932.88$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.33 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 5c | 785.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…98b0backed Yes | 7c | 752.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…97f5backed No | 80c | 347.23$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 80c | 295.76$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 22c | 284$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 80c | 199.73$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 20c | 180.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…7c7ebacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 20c | 111.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d79…9c76backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9d…2034backed No | 80c | 58.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…2649backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…5e65backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…7c8fbacked No | 80c | 20.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…8b5dbacked No | 80c | 16.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…78f9backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-10-01?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Athletic Bilbao end in a draw?No won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.