Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2025-12-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b028d5a8427b7a8e5f5c9bec0c0831e5a7ec93a35199bd9fe73f254452d82a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked No | 79c | 79,271$62,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,481.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 24,668$5,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,175.66 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 20c | 24,405$4,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,931.92 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 21c | 20,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 7,651$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.73 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 76c | 6,756$5,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.9 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 21c | 6,385$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.01 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked No | 77c | 936.72$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 22c | 635.8$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 24c | 624.27$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.26 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 25c | 572.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 25c | 542$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 25c | 468.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 24c | 326.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 10c | 277.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 268.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 22c | 157.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 24c | 149.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…3670backed Yes | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…4b3ebacked Yes | 25c | 127$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 25c | 98.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…c85dbacked Yes | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c22…12c4backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 22c | 73.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 25c | 66.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…56cbbacked No | 76c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99c…6ec3backed Yes | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a79…9cc2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…18a2backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed No | 78c | 21.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc088…0809backed No | 80c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 77c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2025-12-19?this page
- Will Hertha BSC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2025-12-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.