Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f3c08db33c5ca9a21af30d6bb40c126454079b08e1df0d5fbb55b243020c4cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked No | 4c | 2,200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…f167backed No | 73c | 1,457$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…d2d9backed Yes | 27c | 1,456$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked No | 4c | 1,100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed No | 7c | 797.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed No | 54c | 555.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.03 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 27c | 483.83$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.19 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 461.69$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 38c | 332.26$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 31c | 300.65$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 75c | 282.26$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.59 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 73c | 250$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed No | 73c | 250$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Yes | 26c | 233.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.31 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 7c | 161.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…ccc2backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 11c | 103.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…fe50backed Yes | 25c | 97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 23c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 73c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…43dcbacked No | 72c | 76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 21c | 70.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Yes | 29c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 20c | 50.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1fe8backed No | 73c | 50.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0b2bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +142.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2025-12-19?No won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2025-12-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.